|
 
- 现金
- 9671 元
- 精华
- 2
- 帖子
- 12248
- 注册时间
- 2009-10-14
- 最后登录
- 2021-11-25
|
A viable alternative to automotive internal combustion engines (ICEs) is on the horizon. Energy storage technology is now at a point where the size and performance of batteries can meet the demands of consumers. If battery costs continue to drop as anticipated, the electic vehicle (EV) total cost of ownership could soon be lower than a traditional car’s cost. Governments around the world are now developing policies that will stimulate EV demand.
The upshot: By 2020, EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) could account for nearly 10 percent of the market. But significant barriers must be addressed first.
Paving the Way for Electric Vehicles
PERSPECTIVES
Paving the Way for Electric Vehicles
©2010
Affordability. By current industry estimates, the cost of the lithium-ion battery could make the EV $15,000 more expensive than a conventional vehicle—even if the battery cost drops by 50 percent over the next 10 years, as predicted. While the total lifetime ownership costs are expected to drop, the higher initial vehicle cost will still be a deterrent for many consumers. Finding a way to realize the lifetime ownership cost savings up front would do much to remedy this problem.
Infrastructure Investment. An enormous investment is needed to produce the charging stations—as well as the associated hardware used to distribute electricity—over the next 10 years. This investment will need to be made rapidly, so that the infrastructure is in place well before a critical mass of vehicles becomes available for purchase. As a result, the payback period is expected to be quite long, which could discourage many private investors.
Integration. A common and reliable charging ecosystem requires a significant amount of technical, commercial, and regulatory integration between the utilities, charging infrastructure providers, automakers, and policy makers. To cite two examples: The rise in the number of EVs produced will need to be coordinated with utilities to manage increased electricity demand. Charging infrastructure and vehicle-charging interfaces will need to be standardized to enable charging compatibility for all EVs.
Consumer Acceptance. Consumers are accustomed to driving more than 300 miles on a tank of gas and filling the tank without advance planning. The first EVs, however, are expected to have a driving range of only 100 miles with typical battery recharging times exceeding four hours. These differences, along with affordability issues, could significantly hinder mainstream consumer acceptance of EVs.
Future Studies
To acquire the understanding needed for better EV business decisions, PRTM is conducting a range of studies related to the key challenges and operational implications associated with EV adoption, including:
Future State of eMobility. An evaluation of technological trends to identify scenarios for prevailing technologies, potential costs, optimal performance, and overall vehicle characteristics.
Operational Implications of eMobility. A series of detailed follow-up studies that will investigate specific operational areas such as customer needs, global supply chain, product development, and utility integration.
By 2020, the electric vehicle could be a significant presence in the automotive landscape. How we get there, and which companies will be leading the way, remains to be seen.
PRTM directors Oliver Hazimeh ([email protected]), Norbert Wittemann ([email protected]), Anil Khurana ([email protected]), and Craig Kerr ([email protected]) all contributed to this Perspective. |
-
总评分: 现金 + 1
查看全部评分
|
楼主: 且共从容
发表于 2010-7-15 13:25
