Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sunday, October 03, 2010
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 29% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty-four percent (44%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends). When tracking the president’s approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis. For the full-month of September, the president’s ratings slipped a point to the lowest levels of his time in office. Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.” The Atlantic says a new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoenis THE Book to Read About 2010 Politics. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System can be ordered at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders and other outlets. It’s also available in bookstores everywhere. The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook. Overall, 48% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove. Larry Sabato shifts the ratings for a few Senate and Governor’s races while putting a few others on the watch list. Isaac T. Woods, the House Race Editor for Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia writes that they are shifting ratings for 21 House races, all in the Republican’s favor. This includes 10 races going from Toss-Up to Leans Republican, five from Leans Democratic to Toss-Up, two from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic and four from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. Crystal Ball still projects the Republicans will gain 47 House seats this year. Robert Shrum, a Democratic consultant who has worked on many presidential campaigns, sees things entirely differently. Shrum says “signs that the Republican tide is receding” and projects the Democrats will keep control of both the House and Senate.To reach this conclusion, Shrum acknowledges that he has chosen to ignore all results from Rasmussen Reports. He specifically cites Senate race in Pennsylvaniaand Kentuckyas winnable for Democrats. Rasmussen Reports shows Republican Pat Toomey leading by nine in Pennsylvania and Republican Rand Paul leading by eleven in Kentucky. Overall, the race for control of the Senate is getting very close. The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power summary now projects that the Democrats will emerge from Election Day with 49 seats in the Senate and the GOP will hold 47. Four races are currently considered Toss-Ups (Illinois, Nevada, Washington, West Virginia). For Republicans to win control, they would have to win all four Toss-Ups. The Rasmussen Reports Gubernatorial Scorecard shows a large number of Midwestern states are likely to replace a Democratic Governor with a Republican. (More Below)
For the second straight month, the number of Democrats in the nation has fallen to a record low in Rasmussen Reports tracking. Many Americans continue to struggle with the government takeover of General Motors and Chrysler. A majority say the government policy has made them less likely to buy a GM car. One-out-of-four Americans (27%) have either avoided buying a GM car because of the bailout or know someone who has.Ford is the beneficiary as most say the bailouts have made them more likely to consider buying from Ford. A Wall Street Journal profile calls Scott Rasmussen "America's Insurgent Pollster." In a book released earlier this year, Scott observed that, "The gap between Americans who want to govern themselves and politicians who want to rule over them may be as big today as the gap between the colonies and England during the 18th century." In Search of Self-Governance is available at Rasmussen Reports and Amazon.com. If you'd like Scott to speak at your conference or event, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. Scott has published several recent Wall Street Journal columns including "Why Obama Can't Move the Health Care Numbers" and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. He has also written an overview of the health care reform debate, a look at how President Obama is losing independent voters, and was the first to note the decline in the president's approval ratings. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth and his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe. It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the president's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms. (More Below)
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: "It was polling-not journalistic reporting-that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy." Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race this year. In the 2009 New Jersey Governor's race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, "If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!" In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote. We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results for your review. In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates' totals within half a percentage point by (see our 2004 results). See also our 2008 state results for Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and Governor. Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error-for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members. Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Since the November 2008 election, the number of Democrats in the country has declined while the number of unaffiliated voters has grown. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.0% Democrats, 32.9% Republicans, and 32.1% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats. A review of last week's key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls. To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the president's numbers. [url=]ShareThis[/url]
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion polling information. We poll on a variety of topics in the fields of politics, business and lifestyle, updating our site’s content on a news cycle throughout the day, everyday. Rasmussen Reports Platinum Members get an all-access pass to polling news, analysis and insight not available to the general public. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade. To learn more about our methodology, click here.
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