Mckinsey居然预测到北京朝阳区某办公大楼群的倒塌

liver411

http://www.mckinsey.com/location ... ven_ways_china.aspx

       
Seven ways China might surprise us in 2009

The McKinsey Quarterly
Gordon Orr
October 2008

How will China surprise us next? Shocks, tipping points, and revelations have become basic staples of the world’s daily news diet. But with so many eyes now on this emerging Asian giant, what happens there continues to have an exceptional ability to draw attention and to shift perceptions drastically and suddenly.

Will the surprise be planned, as were the magnificent Beijing Olympic Games, whose nearly flawless execution set a counterpoint to China's image as an economic laggard buoyed mainly by cheap labor? Will it repel, as did the tainted-milk scandal? Or will it send a message, as Lenovo’s takeover of IBM’s personal-computer business did in serving notice that Chinese companies were ready to enter the global fray?

Here's a list of some realistic possibilities for the next year. Will all of them come to pass? I doubt it. But any one of them could, and each might make us see China and its future in a new light. What do you think?

China announces that by 2020, half of the cars in the country will be electric. It invests tens of billions of dollars in R&D toward achieving that goal.

Such a move could make China the leader in the automotive technology of the future, with other countries struggling to keep pace. Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) or newcomer BYD Auto could become the Ford Motor of the 21st century, propelled by a new technology—much as Ford capitalized on the internal-combustion engine at the start of the 20th century.

The Chinese government buys a 50-year lease on an entire geographic region of Mexico, enabling Chinese companies to build factories there to supply the North American market more easily.

Chinese companies would then become the undisputed leaders in outsourced production. No longer constrained by geography, they could bring their expertise in low-cost manufacturing to Mexico (or Poland or Turkey), greatly expanding their reach and overcoming obstacles—such as maintaining supply chains across the Pacific—that still hinder their growth.

A major office block collapses in Chaoyang, Beijing's central business district.

Although officials would scramble to rewrite construction regulations, a disaster in the capital or another large city would change the relationship between the country's growing middle class and the government and might threaten its ability to keep social unrest in check. True, construction standards came under fire after the May 2008 Sichuan earthquake felled many school buildings. But the reaction to that tragedy would pale beside the response to a similar one in a rich urban area with immediate media access.

A leading Chinese company tries to buy an iconic U.S. technology firm (or two).

A major deal could be worth 10 or 100 times Lenovo's $1.35 billion purchase of IBM's PC division. If the U.S. government blocked the sale, the acquisition's failure could herald an era of renewed corporate nationalism in China, just as its companies were becoming more global. You could expect an aggressive increase in domestic R&D spending as the country focused on homegrown technology, as well as a chillier climate for multinationals with research operations in China.

A successful deal, by contrast, could create a truly global company, unlike anything seen before, with a multinational culture superseding any sense of national origins.

A restructuring of China's telecommunications industry turns into a complete consolidation.

Regulatory failure and competitive imbalances have already reduced competition down to three major players, from four, and telecom companies are now being encouraged to share infrastructure. If stock prices continue their freefall and these imbalances remain, the inability of the second- and third-ranked players to chart a path to success could bring a full reconsolidation of the domestic industry.

The English Premier League football association buys its Chinese counterpart, the Chinese Super League.

What better way to signal a coming of age for China's urban middle class? The takeover would be a major bet that this growing socioeconomic group is ready to spend heavily on sports and entertainment—a bet that could open the floodgates for investment in other consumer sectors. Wallets are already opening up: witness the Olympics and the U.S. National Basketball Association's exploration of franchise and stadium deals in China. Such a purchase would also show that the country is willing to bring outside expertise and professionalism into a challenged domestic industry.

Warming cross-strait relationships lead to a merger between the mainland's Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Taiwan's Chinatrust Commercial Bank.

The reaction in Taiwan would probably be ambivalent—just another large business deal. But in China, a cross-strait merger of powerhouses like these, in banking or some other sector, would be applauded as an affirmation of its One China worldview.

What do you see that I don't? I look forward to your ideas.

Gordon Orr is a director in McKinsey's Shanghai office.

liver411

央视大火有感

韩寒

1：不幸中的万幸，听说大楼在装修阶段，希望不要有人员伤亡。
2：最重要的也是容易纠缠的一个问题是，这个烟花究竟是老百姓放的，还是央视元宵晚会之后自己放的，相关部门一定要给一个公正的答案。不搪塞，不推卸，不栽赃。
3：烟花爆竹的燃放一定要注意安全。
4：此楼一直被说是央视裤衩下的鸡鸡，现在央视自己把鸡鸡给烧了，这样的自宫行为，彻底的符合了央视身为全球第一大太监媒体的形象。的确，央视暂时还不配有鸡鸡。
5：第一时间，我打开电视，看中央电视台的新闻，央视很镇定，情绪很稳定，在不停的播放澳大利亚的火灾。
6：如果央视的新闻联播在那时候开始，主持人播报完情况，镜头可以直接摇向窗外再摇回来，成为史上第一个无剪切新闻。
7：我告诉我朋友，看网站上的新闻，火灾了。朋友打开一看说胡说，根本没有新闻。
8：我一看，果然都没了，原来是圣旨到——“各网，中央电视台新大楼北配楼发生火
灾相关报道，请各网站只用新华社通稿，不发图片，视频，不做深度报道，只放国内新闻区，关闭跟帖，自然滚动，
9：我们就是这样大事化小，小事化无。财产损失就损失吧，反正纳税人的钱不是烧了就是吃了，横竖总是个浪费，只是希望元宵佳节，楼里的施工人员，消防人员可以平安回家。尤其是消防员，每次在火灾或者车祸现场看见他们，觉得他们还是非常可敬的。
10：至于央视，真是没有想到，一个永远在讲真话的媒体，居然会遭受这个创伤，上天无眼。

王震宇

哈哈！

非著名幸灾乐祸专业户

老丢丢

真的还是假的？

feimasq

暂时保留意见！

ltbyym

还有人预测到wen chuan da di zheng