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Older Age and High α-Fetoprotein Predict Higher Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis-B-Related Cirrhotic Patients Receiving Long-Term Nucleos(t)ide Analogue Therapy
Yuh-Ying Liu 1 , Chih-Lang Lin 1 2 , Cheng-Hao Weng 2 3 , Pei-Hung Chang 2 4 , Cheng-Hung Chien 1 , Kuang-Chen Huang 1 , Man-Chin Hua 2 5 , Ching-Chih Hu 1 2
Affiliations
Affiliations
1
Liver Research Unit, Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 20401, Taiwan.
2
College of Medicine, Chang Gung University, Taoyuan 33302, Taiwan.
3
Kidney Research Center, Department of Nephrology, Linkou Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Taoyuan 333, Taiwan.
4
Department of Oncology, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung 20401, Taiwan.
5
Department of Pediatrics, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Keelung, 20401, Taiwan.
PMID: 36140487 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics12092085
Abstract
Background: Nucleos(t)ide analogues (NUCs) were proved to reduce hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients, but data were limited on their efficacy in cirrhotic CHB patients.
Methods: A total of 447 cirrhotic CHB patients treated with tenofovir/entecavir were retrospectively analyzed and divided into HCC (n = 48) and non-HCC (n = 399) groups. The median follow-up period was 62.1 months.
Results: A total of 48 patients (10.7%) developed HCC during surveillance. The annual incidence rate of HCC was 2.04 per 100 person-years. The cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.9%, 9.8%, and 22.1% at 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively. Significant predictors for HCC identified using a multiple Cox regression analysis were age ≥50 years (hazard ratio (HR): 2.34) and α-fetoprotein (AFP) ≥8 ng/mL (HR: 2.05). The incidence rate of HCC was 8.67-fold higher in patients with age ≥50 years and AFP ≥8 ng/mL (3.14 per 100 person-years) than those with age <50 years and AFP <8 ng/mL (0.36 per 100 person-years).
Conclusions: Cirrhotic CHB patients with age <50 years and AFP <8 ng/mL had the lowest annual incidence of HCC. However, those with age ≥50 years or/and AFP ≥8 ng/mL had a significantly higher risk for HCC development and warrant a careful surveillance schedule.
Keywords: chronic hepatitis B; cirrhosis; cumulative incidence; entecavir; hepatocellular carcinoma; incidence rate; risk; tenofovir.
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