1990-2019年中国肝癌性别差异、时间趋势及25年预测

StephenW

1990-2019年中国肝癌性别差异、时间趋势及25年预测
岳婷婷 1 , 徐明 1 , 蔡婷 1 , 朱海珍 2 , Mahmoud Reza Pourkarim 3 4 5 , Erik De Clercq 3 , 李光迪 1 6
隶属关系
隶属关系

    1
    中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院湖南省临床流行病学重点实验室，长沙
    2
    湖南大学生物学院病原生物学与免疫学研究所，医学病毒学湖南省重点实验室，化学/生物传感与化学计量学国家重点实验室，长沙，中国。
    3
    比利时鲁汶鲁汶大学雷加医学研究所微生物学、免疫学和移植系。
    4
    设拉子医科大学卫生研究所卫生政策研究中心，伊朗设拉子。
    5
    伊朗德黑兰输血医学研究与教育高等研究院输血研究中心。
    6
    湖南省儿童医院，长沙，中国。

    PMID：36091549 PMCID：PMC9459158 DOI：10.3389/fpubh.2022.956712

抽象的

目的：本研究旨在揭示中国肝癌（LC）的流行病学特征和趋势。

方法：我们从 2019 年全球疾病负担数据库中检索数据。连接点回归用于检查 LC 的时间趋势。使用 Nordpred 估计 LC 的未来趋势。

结果：从1990年到2019年，中国LC的发病率、死亡率和伤残标准化生命年（DALY）率呈下降趋势。在2019年超过21万例LC病例中，男性的LC发病率是女性的近3.15倍。 LC 病例和 LC 相关死亡主要发生在 65 至 69 岁的患者中。从 1990 年到 2019 年，可归因于乙型肝炎的 LC 比例随着时间的推移而下降，而可归因于丙型肝炎、饮酒和非酒精性脂肪性肝炎的 LC 比例略有增加。大多数与 LC 相关的死亡可追溯到四种风险因素：吸烟（20%）、吸毒（13.6%）、饮酒（11.7%）和高体重指数（10.1%）。根据 Nordpred 的预测，从 2020 年到 2044 年的 25 年间，肝癌的发病率（39.0%）和死亡率（38.3%）将稳步下降。

结论：中国肝癌的疾病负担在过去 30 年中有所下降。然而，控制高危人群的肝癌仍然很重要，尤其是肥胖、酗酒、吸烟和/或滥用药物的老年男性。

关键词：酒精使用；性别差异；肝癌;预言;时间趋势；烟草使用。

版权所有 © 2022 Yue, Xu, Cai, Zhu, Pourkarim, De Clercq and Li。

StephenW

Gender disparity and temporal trend of liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predictions in a 25-year period
Tingting Yue  1 , Ming Xu  1 , Ting Cai  1 , Haizhen Zhu  2 , Mahmoud Reza Pourkarim  3   4   5 , Erik De Clercq  3 , Guangdi Li  1   6
Affiliations
Affiliations

    1
    Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Xiangya School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, China.
    2
    Institute of Pathogen Biology and Immunology of College of Biology, Hunan Provincial Key Laboratory of Medical Virology, State Key Laboratory of Chemo/Biosensing and Chemometrics, Hunan University, Changsha, China.
    3
    Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute for Medical Research, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.
    4
    Health Policy Research Center, Institute of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran.
    5
    Blood Transfusion Research Center, High Institute for Research and Education in Transfusion Medicine, Tehran, Iran.
    6
    Hunan Children's Hospital, Changsha, China.

    PMID: 36091549 PMCID: PMC9459158 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.956712

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to reveal epidemiological features and trends of liver cancer (LC) in China.

Methods: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease database 2019. Joinpoint regression was used to examine the temporal trend of LC. Future trends of LC were estimated using the Nordpred.

Results: The incidence, mortality, and disability-standardized life year (DALY) rate of LC declined in China from 1990 to 2019. Among >210,000 LC cases in 2019, the LC incidences were nearly 3.15 times higher in males than in females. LC cases and LC-associated deaths were mostly found among patients aged 65 to 69 years. The proportion of LC attributable to hepatitis B decreased over time, whereas the proportions of LC attributable to hepatitis C, alcohol use, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis increased modestly from 1990 to 2019. The majority of LC-associated deaths could be traced to four risk factors: smoking (20%), drug use (13.6%), alcohol use (11.7%), and high body mass index (10.1%). Based on the Nordpred prediction, there will be a steady decline in the incidence (39.0%) and mortality (38.3%) of liver cancer over a 25-year period from 2020 to 2044.

Conclusion: The disease burden of liver cancer in China has declined over the past 30 years. However, it remains important to control liver cancer among high-risk populations, especially elderly males with obesity, alcohol use, tobacco use, and/or drug abuse.

Keywords: alcohol use; gender disparity; liver cancer; prediction; temporal trend; tobacco use.

Copyright © 2022 Yue, Xu, Cai, Zhu, Pourkarim, De Clercq and Li.

StephenW

https://www.frontiersin.org/arti ... ubh.2022.956712/pdf

mtv982

已读，谢谢。

皆是虚妄

戒烟戒酒
运动加健康饮食控制体重