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Age and fibrosis index for the prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in patients with high hepatitis B virus DNA but normal alanine aminotransferase
Seong, Gyeol,*; Sinn, Dong Hyun,*; Kang, Wonseok; Gwak, Geum-Youn; Choi, Moon Seok; Lee, Joon Hyeok; Koh, Kwang Cheol; Woon Paik, Seung; Paik, Yong-Han
Author Information
Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
Received 18 March 2020 Accepted 16 June 2020
*Gyeol Seong and Dong Hyun Sinn contributed equally to the writing of this article.
Correspondence to Yong-Han Paik, MD, PhD, Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, 81 Irwon-ro, Gangnam-gu, 06351, Seoul, South Korea, Tel: +82 2 3410 3409; fax: +82 2 3410 6983; e-mail: [email protected]
European Journal of Gastroenterology & Hepatology: January 2022 - Volume 34 - Issue 1 - p 69-75
doi: 10.1097/MEG.0000000000001915
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Abstract
Aim
Chronic hepatitis B patients positive for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) with high serum hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA levels but normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels may develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, ways to risk stratify are limited.
Methods
A retrospective cohort of 651 HBeAg positive, adult patients with high serum HBV DNA levels (>7 log IU/ml) but normal or mildly elevated ALT levels (<80 U/L) were analyzed.
Results
Age and FIB-4 index were independent factors associated with HCC development. When stratified, 5- and 10-year cumulative HCC incidence rates were 0 and 2.0% for patients aged <40 years with FIB-4 index <1.45, and were 5.9 and 32.7% for patients aged ≥40 years with FIB-4 index ≥1.45, respectively (P < 0.001). In patients with normal ALT levels (n = 301), the 10-year HCC incidence rate was 0% for patients aged <40 years with FIB-4 index <1.45, while 5- and 10-years HCC incidence rate was 4.5 and 27.1% for patients aged ≥40 years with FIB-4 index ≥1.45, respectively (P < 0.001).
Conclusion
In patients with high HBV DNA but normal ALT levels, age and FIB-4 index could effectively stratify HCC risk, indicating that these parameters may guide management plans for this population.
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