中国针对乙肝的全面干预措施的一揽子投资案例：有助于国

StephenW

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning
Shevanthi Nayagam, Polin Chan, Kun Zhao, Elisa Sicuri, Xiaochun Wang, Jidong Jia, Lai Wei, Nick Walsh, Lance E Rodewald, Guomin Zhang ... Show more
Clinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 72, Issue 5, 1 March 2021, Pages 743–752, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa134
Published:
07 April 2020
Article history

    pdfPDF
    Split View
    Cite
    Permissions Icon Permissions
    Share

Abstract
Background

In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world’s population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions.
Methods

A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs.
Results

Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested.
Conclusions

Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning.
hepatitis B, antiviral treatment, investment case, China, modeling
Topic:

    hepatitis b antiviral agents china hepatitis b, chronic investments hepatitis b virus public health medicine viruses case finding prevention

StephenW

中国针对乙肝的全面干预措施的一揽子投资案例：有助于国家战略规划的应用模型
Shevanthi Nayagam，Polin Chan，赵坤，Elisa Sicuri，王晓春，贾继东，赖玮，Nick Walsh，Lance E Rodewald，张国敏...显示更多
临床传染病，第21卷，第5期，2021年3月1日，第743-752页，https：//doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa134
发布时间：
2020年4月7日
文章历史

    PDF格式
    拆分视图
    引用
    权限图标权限
    分享

抽象的
背景

2016年，批准了首个全球病毒性肝炎消灭目标。据估计，世界上患有慢性乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）感染的人口中有三分​​之一生活在中国，肝癌是导致死亡的第六大原因，但是一线抗病毒治疗的覆盖率很低。 2015年，中国是最早针对病毒性肝炎采取新方法的咨询程序的国家之一。我们为扩大一揽子HBV干预措施的规模提出了投资案例。
方法

建立了乙肝病毒动态仿真模型，并用于模拟中国乙肝病毒的流行。我们从社会角度评估了一套全面的预防和治疗干预措施的影响，成本和投资回报，其中包括晚期肝病的管理成本和生产力损失成本。
结果

尽管自1992年以来在历史上扩大了疫苗接种规模，但到2030年，仍将有6,000万人感染HBV，预计将有1000万人死于HBV，其中包括2015年至2030年之间将有570万人死于HBV相关的癌症。通过积极的病例发现和最佳的抗病毒治疗方案，减少了210万。一揽子干预措施可能会为社会带来每1美元投资1.57美元的正投资回报。
结论

在接下来的几十年中，与HBV相关的死亡人数的增加对中国构成了重大的公共卫生威胁。为减轻这种风险，需要积极寻找病例并获得最佳抗病毒治疗。这种投资案例方法提供了一个实际示例，说明应用建模如何支持国家对话并为政策规划提供信息。
乙肝，抗病毒治疗，投资案例，中国，模型
话题：

    乙肝抗病毒药中国乙肝，长期投资乙肝病毒公共卫生医学病毒病例发现预防

StephenW

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/5/743/5817057