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Evaluating the independent influence of sexual transmission on HBV infection in China: a modeling study
Miaolei Li 1 , Jian Zu 2 , Mingwang Shen 3 , Guihua Zhuang 3 , Siyuan Chen 4 , Fuzhen Wang 5 , Hui Zheng 5 , Guomin Zhang 6
Affiliations
Affiliations
1
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, P. R. China.
2
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, P. R. China. [email protected].
3
School of Public Health, Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710061, P. R. China.
4
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, V5A1S6, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.
5
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, P. R. China.
6
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, P. R. China. [email protected].
PMID: 33607996 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-021-10408-5
Free article
Abstract
Background: The long-term impact of sexual transmission on the hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in China remains unclear. This study aims to estimate the independent influence of sexual transmission on HBV infection.
Methods: Based on the natural history of HBV infection and three national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we developed an age- and sex-specific discrete model to describe the transmission dynamics of HBV. The initial conditions of the model were determined according to the age- and sex-specific national serosurvey data in 1992. Based on the national survey data of hepatitis B in 1992 and 2006, by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, we estimated the age- and sex-specific seroclearance rates of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and the horizontal transmission rates as well as their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Then we used the age- and sex-specific national serosurvey data of hepatitis B in 2014 to test the accuracy of our model-based estimation. Finally, we evaluated the independent impact of sexual transmission on HBV infection and discussed the long-term effect of promotion of condom use in China.
Results: We estimated that the annual rates of HBsAg seroclearance for males and females aged 1-59 years were respectively 1.04% (95% CI, 0.49-1.59%) and 1.92% (95% CI, 1.11-2.73%). Due to sexual transmission, in 2014, the total number of chronic HBV infections in people aged 0-100 years increased 292,581, of which males increased 189,200 and females increased 103,381. In 2006, the acute HBV infections due to sexual transmission accounted for 24.76% (male: 31.33%, female: 17.94%) and in 2014, which accounted for 34.59% (male: 42.93%, female: 25.73%). However, if the condom usage rate was increased by 10% annually starting in 2019, then compared with current practice, the total number of acute HBV infections from 2019 to 2035 would be reduced by 16.68% (male: 21.49%, female: 11.93%). The HBsAg prevalence in people aged 1-59 years in 2035 would be reduced to 2.01% (male: 2.40%, female: 1.58%).
Conclusions: Sexual transmission has become the predominant route of acute HBV infection in China, especially for men. The promotion of condom use plays a significant role in reducing the cases of acute HBV infection.
Keywords: Age-structured model; Condom promotion; HBsAg prevalence; Hepatitis B; Sexual transmission.
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