在未经治疗和已治疗的慢性乙型肝炎中肝硬化预测风险评分

StephenW

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Liver Cirrhosis Prediction in Untreated and Treated Chronic Hepatitis B
An K Le, Hwai-I Yang, Ming-Lun Yeh, Mingjuan Jin, Huy N Trinh, Linda Henry, Anne Liu, Jian Q Zhang, Jiayi Li, Christopher Wong, Clifford Wong, Ramsey Cheung, Ming-Lung Yu, Mindie H Nguyen
The Journal of Infectious Diseases, Volume 223, Issue 1, 1 January 2021, Pages 139–146, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa330
Published:
11 June 2020
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Abstract
Background

Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) can progress to cirrhosis, but there are limited noninvasive tools available to estimate cirrhosis risk, including in patients receiving antiviral therapy. This study developed and validated a simple model to assess risk in CHB patients.
Methods

The derivation cohort included 3000 CHB patients from 6 centers in the United States, with 52.60% receiving antiviral therapy. External validation was performed for 4552 CHB individuals from similar cohorts in Taiwan, with 21.27% receiving therapy. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to screen predictors and develop the risk score for cirrhosis. Areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated for predictive value.
Results

Sex, age, diabetes, antiviral treatment status/duration, hepatitis B e-antigen, and baseline alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase levels were significantly associated with increased cirrhosis risk. A 13-point risk score was developed based on these predictors. The AUROCs for predicting cirrhosis risk were 0.82 at 3 years, 0.85 at 5 years, and 0.89 at 10 years in the derivation cohort, and 0.82, 0.79, and 0.77 in the validation cohort, respectively.
Conclusions

We developed and validated a simple cirrhosis prediction model with an independent external cohort that can be applied to both treatment-naive and treatment-experienced CHB patients in diverse settings and locations.
risk prediction, scoring system, area under the curve, variable selection, clinical tools, risk model
Topic:

    diabetes mellitus diabetes mellitus, type 2 liver cirrhosis antiviral agents hepatitis b, chronic

StephenW

在未经治疗和已治疗的慢性乙型肝炎中肝硬化预测风险评分的开发和验证
黎安乐，杨怀一，叶明伦，金明娟，惠N·特林，琳达·亨利，刘安妮，张健Q，李佳怡，黄智超，黄洁仪，张兰西，余明龙，敏迪H阮
2021年1月1日，第223卷，第1期，第139-146页，https：//doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa330
发布时间：
2020年6月11日
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抽象
背景

慢性乙型肝炎（CHB）可能会发展为肝硬化，但是可用有限的非侵入性工具来评估肝硬化的风险，包括接受抗病毒治疗的患者。这项研究开发并验证了评估CHB患者风险的简单模型。
方法

派生队列包括来自美国6个中心的3000名CHB患者，其中52.60％接受抗病毒治疗。对来自台湾类似人群的4552名CHB患者进行了外部验证，其中21.27％的患者接受了治疗。使用Cox比例风险回归分析来筛选预测因素并制定肝硬化风险评分。计算接收器工作特性曲线（AUROC）下的面积作为预测值。
结果

性别，年龄，糖尿病，抗病毒治疗状态/持续时间，乙型肝炎电子抗原和基线丙氨酸氨基转移酶/天冬氨酸氨基转移酶水平与肝硬化风险增加显着相关。根据这些预测因素得出了13分的风险评分。在派生队列中，用于预测肝硬化风险的AUROCs在3年时为0.82，在5年时为0.85，在10年时为0.89，在验证队列中分别为0.82、0.79和0.77。
结论

我们开发并验证了一个具有独立外部队列的简单肝硬化预测模型，该模型可同时应用于未经治疗和经验丰富的CHB患者，适用于各种环境和位置。
风险预测，评分系统，曲线下面积，变量选择，临床工具，风险模型
话题：

    糖尿病，2型肝硬化，抗病毒药，慢性乙型肝炎