咖啡摄入量增加可以避免因肝病死亡

StephenW

Increased coffee intake could avert deaths from liver disease
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Increasing per capita coffee consumption on a population level has the potential to avert liver disease-related deaths, according to study results.

Sarah Gardner, MBBS, of the liver transplant unit at The Austin Hospital in Australia, and colleagues wrote that previous studies have indicated that coffee offers at least some protection against liver disease.

“[Previous research] demonstrated a 46% reduction in death from liver cirrhosis for people assessed at study entry as drinking [two to three cups per day]; and a 71% reduction in death from cirrhosis in those consuming [four] or more cups daily,” they wrote. “The potential global health impact of coffee intake being advocated as a liver health therapy has not previously been explored and mathematical modelling is one way of exploring the potential impact of novel population-level interventions.”

Researchers modelled the impact of increased per capita coffee consumption on liver-related mortality using the Global Burden of Disease 2016 dataset. They tested their model assumptions by using published risk ratios for greater than two cups of coffee per day (RR = 0.54; 95% CI, 0.42-0.69) and at least 4 cups of coffee per day (RR = 0.29; 95% CI, 0.17-0.5).

Worldwide in 2016, there were an estimated 1,240,201 adult liver-related deaths with a median global liver mortality rate of 15 deaths per 100,000 population per year.

Gardner and colleagues found that if all countries that had a per capita coffee intake of no more than two cups per day increased that intake to more than two cups per day, the predicted total number of liver-related deaths would have been 630,947 in 2016 (95% CI, 629,693-631,861) with 452,861 deaths averted (95% CI, 451,948-454,116).

If per capita coffee consumption increased to at least four cups per day, the predicted number of liver-related deaths would have been 360,523 (95% CI, 359,825-361,992) in 2016 with 723,287 deaths averted (95% CI, 721,817-723,984).

“If the impact of coffee on liver-related mortality shown in cohort studies is confirmed in clinical trials, increasing per capita coffee consumption to more than two cups per capita per day on a population level has the potential to avert hundreds of thousands of deaths from liver disease annually,” Gardner and colleagues wrote. “Further research is urgently needed to confirm the benefits and cost-effectiveness of coffee on liver-related mortality.”
liver disease
coffee
nutrition

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StephenW

咖啡摄入量增加可以避免因肝病死亡
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根据研究结果，在人均水平上增加人均咖啡消费量有可能避免与肝病相关的死亡。

澳大利亚奥斯汀医院肝移植部门MBBS的Sarah Gardner及其同事写道，以前的研究表明，咖啡至少提供了一些抗肝病的保护作用。

“ [先前的研究]表明，在研究开始时被评估为[每天喝两到三杯]的人，肝硬化死亡人数减少了46％；他们写道：“每天喝四杯或更多杯的人，由于肝硬化导致的死亡减少71％。” “以前尚未探讨过倡导将咖啡摄入作为肝脏健康疗法对全球健康的潜在影响，而数学建模是探索新型人群水平干预措施的潜在影响的一种方法。”

研究人员使用2016年全球疾病负担数据模拟了人均咖啡摄入量增加对肝脏相关死亡率的影响。他们通过使用公布的风险比测试了模型假设，该风险比为每天两杯以上的咖啡（RR = 0.54; 95％CI，0.42-0.69）和每天至少四杯咖啡（RR = 0.29; 95％CI， 0.17-0.5）。

2016年，全球估计有1,240,201例与成人肝脏相关的死亡，全球肝脏平均死亡率为每年每100,000人口15例死亡。

Gardner及其同事发现，如果所有人均咖啡摄入量每天不超过两杯的国家将其摄入量增加到每天两杯以上，那么2016年与肝有关的死亡总数预计将为630,947（ 95％CI（629,693-631,861），避免了452,861例死亡（95％CI，451,948-454,116）。

如果人均咖啡消费量增加到每天至少四杯，则2016年与肝有关的死亡人数预计将为360,523（95％CI，359,825-361,992），避免了723,287例死亡（95％CI，721,817-723,984） 。

“如果在临床试验中证实了咖啡对队列研究中显示的与肝有关的死亡率的影响，则将人均咖啡消费量提高到人均每天两杯以上，有可能避免数十万人死于每年都有肝脏疾病。” Gardner及其同事写道。 “迫切需要进一步的研究，以确认咖啡对肝脏相关死亡率的益处和成本效益。”
肝病
咖啡
营养

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也不知道外国人研究的是真是假， 肝硬化死亡率减少 46%-71%，这保肝的效果不比抗病毒药物逊色。