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J Infect Dis. 2019 Sep 24. pii: jiz477. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jiz477. [Epub ahead of print]
REAL-B (Real-world Effectiveness from the Asia Pacific Rim Liver Consortium for HBV) Risk Score for the Prediction of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated with Oral Antiviral Therapy.
Yang HI1,2, Yeh ML3, Wong GL4, Peng CY5, Chen CH6, Trinh HN7, Cheung KS8, Xie Q9, Su TH10, Kozuka R11, Lee DH12, Ogawa E13, Zhao C14, Ning HB15, Huang R16, Li J17, Zhang JQ18, Ide T19, Xing H20, Iwane S21, Takahashi H21, Wong C22, Wong C22, Lin CH5, Hoang J23, le A23, Henry L23, Toyoda H24, Ueno Y25, Gane EJ26, Eguchi Y21, Kurosaki M27, Wu C16, Liu C14, Shang J15, Furusyo N13, Enomoto M11, Kao JH10, Yuen MF8, Yu ML3, Nguyen MH23.
Author information
1
Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
2
Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan.
3
Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
4
Department of Medicine and Therapeutics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
5
Department of Gastroenterology, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan ROC.
6
Department of Internal Medicine, Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital and Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
7
San Jose Gastroenterology, San Jose, CA, USA.
8
Department of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
9
Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, PRC.
10
Hepatitis Research Center, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan.
11
Department of Hepatology, Osaka City University Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka, Japan.
12
Department of Gastroenterology, Good Gang-An Hospital, Busan, South Korea.
13
Department of General Internal Medicine, Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan.
14
Department of Cirrhosis, Institute of Liver Disease, Shuguang Hospital, Shanghai University of T.C.M., Shanghai, PRC.
15
Department of Infectious Diseases, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, PRC.
16
Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital, Nanjing University Medical School, Nanjing, Jiangsu, PRC.
17
Palo Alto Medical Foundation, Mountain View Division, Mountain View, CA, USA.
18
Chinese Hospital, San Francisco, CA, USA.
19
Department of Internal Medicine, Kurume University School of Medicine, Fukuoka, Japan.
20
Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, PRC.
21
Department of Internal Medicine, Saga University Hospital, Saga, Japan.
22
Wong Clinics, San Francisco, CA, USA.
23
Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
24
Department of Gastroenterology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki, Japan.
25
Department of Gastroenterology, Yamagata University, Yamagata, Japan.
26
Liver Transplant Unit, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
27
Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Musashino Red Cross Hospital, Tokyo, Japan.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Patients on oral antiviral (OAV) therapy remain at HCC risk. Risk prediction tools distinguishing treated patients with residual HCC risk are limited. Aim: Develop an accurate, precise, simple-to-use HCC risk score using routine clinical variables among a treated Asian cohort.
METHODS:
Routine practice adult Asian CHB patients on OAV were recruited from 25 centers in the US and Asia-Pacific region. Excluded persons were co-infected with hepatitis C, D, or HIV, had HCC prior to or within 1 year of study entry or their follow-up was <1 year. Patients were randomized to derivation and validation cohorts on a 2:1 ratio. Statistically significant predictors from multivariate modeling formed the REAL-B score.
RESULTS:
A total of 8,048 patients were randomized to the derivation (n=5,365) or validation group (n=2,683).The REAL-B model included 7 variables (male gender, age, alcohol use, diabetes, baseline cirrhosis, platelet count, and AFP) scores were categorized as: 0-3 low risk, 4-7 moderate risk, and 8-13 high risk. AUROCs were >0.80 for HCC risk at 3, 5, and 10 years, and were significantly higher than other risk models (p<0·001).
CONCLUSION:
The REAL-B score provides three distinct risk categories for HCC development in Asian CHB patients on OAV guiding HCC surveillance strategy.
© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: [email protected].
KEYWORDS:
Asian; liver cancer; treatment; viral hepatitis; viral suppression
PMID:
31550363
DOI:
10.1093/infdis/jiz477
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