- 现金
- 62111 元
- 精华
- 26
- 帖子
- 30437
- 注册时间
- 2009-10-5
- 最后登录
- 2022-12-28
|
Mortality and liver transplants
Dr Papatheodoridis and his team also looked at survival of people with and without cirrhosis in this cohort of 1951 people on long-term entecavir or tenofovir DF. All were treated for at least one year (median six years). Follow-up continued to April 2016.
Over a median follow-up period of six years, 37 people without cirrhosis (2.7%) and 44 people with cirrhosis (8.4%) died from any cause; 10 (0.7%) and 23 (4.4%) of these deaths were due to liver-related causes. Thirty-seven people without cirrhosis (2.7%) and 80 people with cirrhosis (15.2%) developed HCC, and eight (0.6%) and nine (1.7%), respectively, received liver transplants.
Cumulative survival probability for the whole patient population at 1, 3, 5, 8 and 10 years was high: 99.7%, 97.8%, 95.9%, 94.1% and 94.1%, respectively. However, survival rates were significantly higher for people without cirrhosis (100%, 98.5%, 97.3%, 96.2% and 96.2%) compared to those with cirrhosis (99.1%, 95.9%, 92.8%, 89.3% and 89.3%).
Development of liver cancer was the major factor affecting overall mortality – and was in fact the only factor affecting liver-related mortality in this cohort, according to the researchers.
Among people with HCC, 45.9% of people without cirrhosis and 32.5% of those with cirrhosis either died from a liver-related cause or got a liver transplant. In contrast, this occurred in just 0.01% of people without cirrhosis and 1.3% of people with cirrhosis without HCC. Having HCC gave a hazard ratio of 5.47 – more than five times higher risk of all-cause death – but after adjusting for HCC in a multivariate analysis, cirrhosis had a much smaller though still significant effect (HR 1.08).
Finally, Kellie Young of the Santa Clara Valley Medical Center in California, Robert Wong of the Alameda Health System and colleagues used data from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry to evaluate trends in liver transplant wait-list registrations, survival while wait-listed, and the likelihood of receiving transplants among adults with chronic hepatitis B in the US.
This retrospective study looked at approximately 6700 people (about 80% men) waitlisted during three time periods:
Era 1: 1992-1996, before treatment with nucleoside/nucleotide analogues
Era 2: 1997-2004, lamivudine and adefovir (Hepsera) available
Era 3: 2005-2015, current therapies available (entecavir starting in 2005 and tenofovir DF in 2008).
The number of waitlisted individuals more than doubled from Era 1 (about 900) to Era 2 (about 2800), but then stabilised in Era 3 (about 3000). The proportion of white individuals fell over time (from nearly two-thirds to a third) while the proportion of Asians rose (from about a quarter to about half); black and Hispanic people accounted for a small proportion of transplant candidates across time.
Overall, about a quarter of waitlisted individuals had HCC. But the number of candidates with liver cancer rose steadily, from just 5% in Era 1 to 15% in Era 2 and 39% in Era 3, although HCC dipped somewhat in the last two years. The proportion of Asians with HCC reached two-thirds in Era 3. Dr Wong suggested this might be because HBV genotypes found in Asia (B and C) may be more likely to cause liver cancer.
During Era 1, 0.9% of waitlisted individuals died and 46.6% received transplants within a year; the average time to death on the waitlist was 1432 days and the mean time to transplantation was 273 days. During Era 2, 8.4% died and 40.3% got transplants within a year; the mean times to death and transplantation were 569 and 311 days, respectively. And during Era 3, 6.2% died while waiting and 47.5% got transplants; the mean times to death and transplantation were 350 and 178 days.
The likelihood of dying while on the waitlist was significantly higher in Era 1 compared to Era 2 (HR 4.55), but fell from Era 2 to Era 3 (HR 3.63 vs Era 1). Waitlist mortality was affected by both the number of people who died and time to death on the transplant list. Era 1 had both the smallest number of deaths and the longest mean time to death, which the researchers said might be due to selection bias in favour of healthier individuals, as transplant outcomes were poor for people with hepatitis B prior to the 1990s.
The researchers noted that studies have shown that MELD scores at the time of transplantation have increased in recent years, suggesting people on the waitlist are now sicker. But the decline in the likelihood of death on the waitlist from Era 2 to Era 3 may reflect the improvement in hepatitis B treatment. A subgroup analysis of Era 3 showed that survival increased from 2005-2007 to 2008-2011 (HR 0.77) and 2012-2015 (HR 0.61), even after controlling for disease severity.
|
|