Am J Gastroenterol 2016; 111:1297–1304; doi:10.1038/ajg.2016.257; published online 21 June 2016 Lower Observed Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients Treated With Entecavir: Results of the ENUMERATE StudyJoseph Ahn MD, MS, AGAF, FACG1, Joseph K Lim MD2, Hannah M Lee MD3, Anna S Lok MD4, Mindie Nguyen MD5, Calvin Q Pan MD6, Ajitha Mannalithara PhD5, Helen Te MD7, K. Rajender Reddy MD8, Huy Trinh MD9, Danny Chu MD10, Tram Tran MD11, Daryl Lau MD12, Truong-Sinh Leduc MD13, Albert Min MD14, Loc Trong Le MD15, Ho Bae MD16, Sang Van Tran MD17, Son Do MD18, Hie-Won L Hann MD19, Clifford Wong MD20, Steven Han MD21, Anjana Pillai MD22, James S Park MD23, Myron Tong MD22, Steve Scaglione MD24, Jocelyn Woog JD25 and W. Ray Kim MD5 - 1Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, Oregon, USA
- 2Department of Digestive Diseases, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- 3Gastroenterology/Hepatology Division, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia, USA
- 4Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
- 5Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA
- 6Department of Medicine, NYU Langone, New York City, New York, USA
- 7Digestive Disease Center, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
- 8Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- 9San Jose GI, San Jose, California, USA
- 10NYU School of Medicine, New York City, New York, USA
- 11Department of Medicine, Cedars Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, California, USA
- 12Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, BIDMC, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- 13Leduc Medical Group, Fountain Valley, California, USA
- 14Division of Gastroenterology, Mount Sinai Beth Israel, New York City, New York, USA
- 15Woodholme Gastroenterology Associates, Pikeville, Maryland, USA
- 16Asian Pacific Liver Center, Los Angeles, California, USA
- 17Falls Church Family Practice, Falls Church, Virginia, USA
- 18Digestive Health Associates of Texas, Plano, Texas, USA
- 19Thomas Jefferson University Hospital, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
- 20San Francisco, California, USA
- 21University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
- 22Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
- 23NYU Langone, New York City, New York, USA
- 24Loyola University, Maywood, Illinois, USA
- 25Asian Health Foundation, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA
Correspondence: Joseph Ahn, MD, MS, AGAF, FACG, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Oregon Health and Science University, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Road, L-461, Portland, Oregon 97239, USA. E-mail: [email protected] Received 1 March 2016; Accepted 1 May 2016
Advance online publication 21 June 2016
Top of pageAbstractOBJECTIVES: Data from the United States are lacking regarding the impact of entecavir (ETV) on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Our aim is to determine whether treatment with ETV is associated with a reduced HCC risk by calculating the expected HCC incidence based on the Risk Estimation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Chronic Hepatitis B (REACH-B) model and comparing it with the observed HCC incidence.
METHODS: The incidence of HCC in US patients treated with ETV between 2005 and 2013 in a retrospective cohort was obtained. The predicted HCC incidence was calculated using the REACH-B model. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as a ratio of observed over predicted HCC cases.
RESULTS: Of 841 patients, 646 (65% male, 84% Asian, median age 47 years, 36% hepatitis B e antigen positive, 9.4% with cirrhosis) met the inclusion criteria. Over a median follow-up of 4 years, 17 (2.6%) cases of HCC were diagnosed, including 8 out of 61 (13.1%) patients with cirrhosis and 9 out of 585 (1.5%) without cirrhosis. Compared with those without HCC, the 17 patients with HCC were older at 53 years vs. 47 years and more likely to have cirrhosis at 47.1% vs. 8.4%. Among patients without cirrhosis, the observed HCC incidence was significantly lower than predicted by the fourth year (SIR, 0.37; 95% confidence interval: 0.166–0.82). A sensitivity analysis that comprised all patients, including those with cirrhosis, showed that at the maximum follow-up time of 8.2 years, a significantly lower than predicted HCC incidence was noted with an SIR of 0.56 (95% confidence interval: 0.35–0.905).
CONCLUSIONS: Based on the REACH-B model, long-term ETV therapy was associated with a lower than predicted HCC incidence. However, the risk of HCC persisted, and careful HCC surveillance remains warranted despite the anti-viral treatment.
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