肝癌死亡率在韩国的年龄阶段，世代分析

StephenW

Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2015;16(18):8589-8594.
Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Liver Cancer Mortality in Korea.Park J1, Jee YH.
Author information

• 1Department of Applied Statistics, Graduate School, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea E-mail : [email protected].
  

AbstractBACKGROUND: Liver cancer is one of the most common causes of death in the world. In Korea, hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a major risk factor for liver cancer but infection rates have been declining since the implementation of the national vaccination program. In this study, we examined the secular trends in liver cancer mortality to distinguish the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data for the annual number of liver cancer deaths in Korean adults (30 years and older) were obtained from the Korean Statistical Information Service for the period from 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to study the shapes of and to detect the changes in mortality trends. Also, an age-period-cohort model was designed to study the effect of each age, period, and birth cohort on liver cancer mortality.
RESULTS: For both men and women, the age-standardized mortality rate for liver cancer increased from 1984 to 1993 and decreased thereafter. The highest liver cancer mortality rate has shifted to an older age group in recent years. Within the same birth cohort group, the mortality rate of older age groups has been higher than in the younger age groups. Age-period-cohort analysis showed an association with a high mortality rate in the older age group and in recent years, whereas a decreasing mortality rate were observed in the younger birth cohort.
CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed a decreasing trend in liver cancer mortality among Korean men and women after 1993. The trends in mortality rate may be mainly attributed to cohort effects.

StephenW

亚洲小精灵癌症杂志上一个。 2015; 16（18）：8589-8594。
肝癌死亡率在韩国的年龄阶段，世代分析。
园J1，梓YH。
应用统计的延世大学作者信息教研室，研究生院，韩国首尔，电子邮件：米妮[email protected]。
抽象
背景：
肝癌是死亡的在世界上最常见的原因之一。在韩国，乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）是肝癌，但感染率一直在下降，因为国家疫苗接种计划实施的主要危险因素。在这项研究中，我们研究了长期趋势肝癌死亡率区分年龄，时间段和出生队列的影响。
材料和方法：
肝癌死亡的韩国成年人每年有多少数据（30岁以上）从韩国统计信息服务获得了从1984年至2013年期间。连接点回归分析用于研究的形状和以检测的变化死亡率趋势。另外，与年龄期间-队列模型被设计来研究每个年龄，周期和出生队列对肝癌死亡率的影响。
结果：
对于男性和女性中，年龄标化死亡率为肝癌，从1984年上升到1993年和随后下降。最高肝癌的死亡率已经转到了一个年龄组在最近几年。在同一出生队列组，死亡率老年群体一直较年轻的年龄组高。年龄段，队列分析显示，具有很高的死亡率在老年组和近年来的关联，而减少的死亡率是在年轻的出生队列观察。
结论：
这项研究证实了肝癌死亡率之间的韩国男性和女性有下降趋势1993年后死亡率的趋势可能主要归因于群效应。