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Discussion Top
In recent decades, NUCs have been widely used to treat CHB, thereby preventing or delaying the development of liver disease. However, many clinical studies have reported a high relapse rate after discontinuation of NUCs treatment.[13] The Asia-Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) Guidelines recommend that treatment for patients who are HBeAg positive should be continued for at least 12 months, and after reaching CR, their treatment should be consolidated for at least 12 months before discontinuation is considered. Treatment for patients who are HBeAg negative should be continued for at least 12 months, and after reaching CR, their treatment should be consolidated for at least 18 months before discontinuation is considered.[14] However, the APASL recommendations lack sufficient evidence-based support, as there are currently only a small number of factors that are known to be related to recurrence after discontinuation. One study of 467 South Korean patients with CHB, who were HBeAg positive and received LAM antiviral therapy, reported that patients younger than 40 years and with a CT time >12 months after HBeAg seroconversion exhibited a 20% relapse rate. In contrast, patients younger than 40 years, or with a CT time > 12 months after HBeAg seroconversion, exhibited a 50% relapse rate, whereas patients older than 40 years and with a CT time < 12 months after HBeAg seroconversion, exhibited a relapse rate of up to 90%. Thus, the relapse rate is directly related to the patient’s age and the duration of CT.[15] Another study of 17 patients from Shanghai who had CHB and were HBeAg positive revealed that HBsAg < 2 log10IU/mL at the 104th week of treatment accurately predicted postdiscontinuation SVR after 2 years of LdT antiretroviral therapy and 2 years of follow-up. In addition, the decreasing levels of HBsAg at the 24th and 52nd weeks of treatment could more accurately predict postdiscontinuation SVR compared with HBV DNA levels (in the same period).[16]
The purpose of this study was to identify the predictors of a sustained response after NUCs discontinuation. All patients enrolled into this study were strictly screened according to the APASL guidelines for discontinuation, and we then analyzed the postdiscontinuation VR rates. Using logistic regression analysis, we observed that HBsAg levels and age at discontinuation, as well as CR time, were predictors of postdiscontinuation VR. Low HBsAg levels at discontinuation indicated a low risk, with younger patients less prone to VR compared with elderly patients. In addition, shorter CR time during the treatment predicted a lower risk of postdiscontinuation VR. However, we did not observe any other significant predictors of relapse among the various parameters examined. Likewise, in a study of NUCs use in 48 South Korean patients with CHB (HBeAg positive) reported that patient age (>40 years) and the duration of CT (≥15 months) were significant predictive factors for off-treatment durability [P = 0.049; relative risk (RR): 0.31; 95% CI: 0.096–0.998 and P = 0.005; RR: 11.29; 95% CI: 2.054–65.12, respectively]. However, younger patients (≤40 years) with extended CT (≥15 months) had significantly improved durability (P = 0.014). These results suggest that treatment for >15 months (after HBeAg seroconversion) in patients who are ≤40 years old may provide a sustained virologic response.[17] Another study from Guangzhou, China, reported that the age at discontinuation, baseline ALT levels, and prolonged CT were associated with VR after discontinuation.[18] The results of these clinical studies indicate that during NUCs treatment, CT time, age at discontinuation, and ALT levels before treatment could be used to guide discontinuation of NUCs treatment. However, we did not observe a significant difference in the CT time and baseline ALT levels among VR and SVR patients. Feng et al., has reported from data collected after the discontinuation of LAM treatment in 61 patients who were HBeAg negative. Their total treatment time was ≥24 months, the CT time was ≥18 months, and relapse was defined as HBV DNA > 104 copies/mL. Cox regression analysis revealed that age was the only predictor in that study, with younger patients exhibiting a lower relapse rate.[19] Another study investigated ADV antiretroviral therapy in 145 patients with CHB (HBeAg negative) from Shanghai, and reported that the total treatment time for all patients was ≥ 24 months and the CT time was ≥ 18 months. During the postdiscontinuation follow-up period, 95 cases relapsed (relapse was defined as HBV DNA > 104 copies/mL), with 93% of these patients experiencing relapse within 12 months of discontinuation.[20] In their Cox correlation analysis, age was the only factor that was significantly associated with relapse. The results of these studies indicated that age is an important predictor for postdiscontinuation relapse, which is similar to our results; therefore, younger patients do not appear to be prone to relapse after discontinuation.
In this study, follow-up revealed that only 5 of the 44 cases of HBeAg-positive CHB experienced HBeAg reversion, indicating that NUC-induced HBeAg seroconversion was durable. This result is consistent with the results of a 2-year drug discontinuation study, which reported that 80% patients maintained HBeAg seroconversion 2 years after discontinuation.[21]
The loss of HBsAg and the development of anti-HBs antibodies (HBsAg seroconversion) are the ultimate goals of anti-HBV therapy, and therefore the HBsAg levels might be a useful prognostic indicator. In recent years, serum HBsAg quantitation has become a popular field for research. In addition, it has been reported that HBsAg levels can reflect the levels of HBV DNA or covalently closed circular DNA inside liver cells, as this DNA acts as a transcription template for viral RNA. Therefore, HBsAg levels are recommended as an alternative indicator for HBV infection of liver cells.[22] In the natural history of hepatitis B, it was discovered that low serum HBsAg levels were related with disease improvement and virus removal.[22] In studies regarding interferon therapy, it has been reported that low HBsAg levels during treatment could predict a sustained response to the therapy.[23],[24] Another study reported that LdT treatment induced a significant decline in HBsAg levels during treatment, and that HBsAg clearance was related to the sustained remission of disease.[25] In the present study, we observed that the serum HBsAg levels in the VR group were higher than those in the SVR group. Interestingly, 60% of patients with HBsAg > 2.715 IU/mL experienced VR after discontinuation, whereas only 23.33% of patients with HBsAg < 2.715 IU/mL experienced VR. These findings agree with recent findings from Guangxi, China, where HBsAg < 2 logIU/mL could predict sustained remission among 84 patients with hepatitis B, who had patients who had discontinued NUCs treatment.[26]
In the present study, we also observed that the risk of postdiscontinuation VR was lower among patients who achieved CR earlier compared with those who achieved CR later. Among the 51 patients who achieved CR within 32.5 months, only 17 cases (33.33%) experienced VR by the end of the follow-up, whereas 11 of 14 patients (78.57%) who achieved CR in >32.5 months experienced VR by the end of the follow-up. In addition, we concluded that serum HBsAg, age at discontinuation, and CR time were predictors of postdiscontinuation relapse. These factors could be used to guide clinical discontinuation of treatment, as younger patients, those with lower serum HBsAg levels, and those with earlier CR would have a lower risk of postdiscontinuation relapse.
This study also had several limitations. The first one is the small sample size, which may lead to bias from the real world treatment. As our data from the beginning of NUCs therapy to discontinuation was retrospectively obtained, and we had no serum samples from the time the patients started treatment and during the treatment period. Therefore, we were unable to evaluate any possible quantitative changes in HBsAg levels during treatment, and could not analyze the impacts of these changes on the incidence of relapse. With the limitation of retrospective information such as this, we may be able to plan prospective studies in future. In addition, the quantitation of HBV DNA before discontinuation was performed using a Chinese PCR-assay (detection limit: 1000 copies/mL), which is not as accurate as the Cobas TaqMan method used in the follow up (detection limit: 20 IU/mL).[27]
Acknowledgments Top
This study was supported by Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (S2013010014658), Chinese Foundation for Hepatitis Prevention, and Control-TianQing Liver Disease Research Fund Subject (TQGB2011001).
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