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本帖最后由 肝胆速递 于 2012-9-16 00:07 编辑
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/hep.25718/abstract
A large case-control study on the predictability of hepatitis B surface antigen levels three years before hepatitis B surface antigen seroclearance†‡
3年后HbsAg可转阴病人的HbsAg浓度的大样本调查
肝胆速递:203例病人调查显示,血液HbsAg浓度小于200IU/ml且每年下降0.5个log值预示3年后HbsAg转阴
Wai-Kay Seto等,
Article first published online: 10 JUL 2012
DOI: 10.1002/hep.25718
The assays used to determine serum hepatitis B virus DNA levels (Cobas Taqman assay) and hepatitis B surface antigen levels (Elecsys HBsAg II assay) performed in our laboratory were supported by an unrestricted grant from Roche Diagnostics.
Abstract
The kinetics of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels preceding spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance has not been fully investigated. The kinetics of HBsAg and hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA of 203 treatment-naïve, hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative patients with spontaneous HBsAg seroclearance were compared with 203 age- and sex-matched HBeAg-negative controls. Serum samples at 3 years, 2 years, 1 year, and 6 months before HBsAg seroclearance and at the time of HBsAg loss were tested. Median HBsAg levels at these respective time points before HBsAg seroclearance were 23.5, 3.51, 0.524, and 0.146 IU/mL. For all time points, patients with HBsAg seroclearance had significantly lower median HBsAg and HBV DNA levels, compared to those of the controls (all P < 0.001). Median HBsAg and HBV DNA levels declined significantly until HBsAg seroclearance (P < 0.001). Although median HBsAg levels also decreased significantly with time (P = 0.006) in controls, median HBV DNA levels remained similar (P = 0.414). Serum HBsAg levels, followed by HBsAg log reduction, were the best predictors of HBsAg seroclearance, with an area under the receiving operator characteristic (AUROC) of 0.833 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.792-0.873) and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.755–0.849), respectively. The optimal cut-off HBsAg level and HBsAg reduction to predict HBsAg seroclearance were <200 IU/mL (sensitivity, 84.2%; specificity, 73.4%) and 0.5 log IU/mL/year (sensitivity, 62.8%; specificity, 88.7%), respectively. For patients with HBsAg levels ≥200 IU/mL, an annual 0.5-log reduction was highly predictive of subsequent HBsAg seroclearance (AUROC, 0.867; 95% CI: 0.778-0.956). Conclusion: To conclude, serum HBsAg <200 IU/mL and 0.5-log reduction in HBsAg were predictive of HBsAg seroclearance within 3 years of follow-up. These parameters may serve as good indicators for the consideration of treatment duration and cessation for chronic hepatitis B. (HEPATOLOGY 2012;56:812–819)
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