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发表于 2012-1-12 23:26 |只看该作者 |倒序浏览 |打印
http://www.nature.com/nrd/journal/v11/n1/full/nrd3630.html
News and Analysis

Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 11, 17-18 (January 2012) | doi:10.1038/nrd3630

From the analyst's couch: A decade of change
[Extract]
In 2001, R&D groups across the industry were rewarded for putting drug candidates into development or for moving them into the next stage of development; consequently, R&D pipelines grew in the early years of the past decade (Fig. 1); data for Figs 1,2,3,4 are compiled from 14 companies — 6 major, 8 mid and other. However, the outcome was a rise in attrition levels a few years later, such that the chance of successful market launch for a drug entering Phase I trials fell from approximately 10% in 2002 to 5% at last estimate (Fig. 2). The weakest link in the chain was, and still is, in Phase II, where around 50% of failures are typically due to efficacy, 30% are due to strategic reasons and 20% are due to safety concerns3. These stark data — along with continued financial strain — resulted in the dramatic paring back of the pipeline volumes from 2008 onwards. Companies started to focus on fewer candidates that they deemed most scientifically robust, moved away from multiple back-up candidates, reduced the number of therapeutic areas they operated in and questioned the prospects of candidates that seemed unlikely to be best or first in class.
新闻和分析

药物发现自然评论11,17-18(2012年1月)|作者:10.1038/nrd3630

从分析师的沙发:十年的变化

2001年,整个行业的研发团体奖励为候选药物纳入发展或进入下一阶段的发展移动它们,因此,研发管道早年在过去的十年(图1)的增长;数据图1 2,3,4编制14 - 6大公司,8月中旬和其他。然而,这一结果是在消耗水平的上升,几年后,这样一种药物进入I期临床试验的成功推出市场的机会,从下跌约10%,去年估计在2002年至5%(图2)。链中最薄弱的环节是,现在仍然是,在第二阶段,其中约50%的失败通常是由于疗效,30%是由于战略上的原因,20%是由于安全concerns3的。 - 伴随着持续的财政压力 - 这些鲜明的数据,从2008年起在戏剧性的配对管道卷回。公司开始把重点放在较少的候选人,他们认为最科学稳健,从多个备份候选人距离,减少他们经营的治疗领域和质疑,似乎不太可能最好,或者先在课堂上的候选人,前景。

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发表于 2012-1-13 17:42 |只看该作者
本帖最后由 StephenW 于 2012-1-13 17:43 编辑

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从14家在美国的制药公司资料,在2006-2008年,只有11%的药物,完成第二期临床试验,最终上到市场。也就是说,大多数药物的二期临床试验是失败的。

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发表于 2012-1-13 20:36 |只看该作者
11%也不算太低了
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