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标题: 基於個人的模型研究2006至2050年中國慢性乙型肝炎的疾病負擔 [打印本页]

作者: StephenW 时间: 2020-8-30 12:50 标题: 基於個人的模型研究2006至2050年中國慢性乙型肝炎的疾病負擔

Disease burden of chronic hepatitis B and complications in China from 2006 to 2050: an individual-based modeling study

[url=]Yang Zheng[/url],
[url=]Jie Wu[/url],
[url=]Cheng Ding[/url],
[url=]Kaijin Xu[/url],
[url=]Shigui Yang[/url] &
[url=]Lanjuan Li[/url]

Virology Journal volume 17, Article number: 132 (2020) Cite this article

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AbstractBackgroundChronic hepatitis B has become a major public health problem in China. An accurate depiction of the disease burden has not yet been thoroughly conducted. We aimed to project the disease burden of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and related complications by modeling various scenarios.
MethodAn individual-based Markov model was used to predict disease burden from 2006 through 2050. We simulated 5 scenarios with different annual incidences, diagnoses and nucleotide analog (NA) treatment rates as well as treatment eligibility, which included a natural history without diagnosis or NA therapy, a base case, a World Health Organization (WHO)-proposed target case and two ideal cases.
ResultThe natural history scenario is projected to have the fewest HBsAg losses (27.59 million) and highest number of HBV-related deaths (27.19 million). With improved diagnosis and treatment rates of NA therapy, ideal cases have fewer HBV-related deaths (14.46–14.77 million) than do WHO-proposed cases (15.13 million) and base cases (16.89 million), but the proportion of HBsAg loss is similar among them. With a reduction in new infections, the prevalence of chronic HBV in 2050 is expected to be a minimum of 27.03–27.49 million under WHO and ideal cases.
ConclusionIdeal scenarios 1 and 2 contribute to the lowest disease burden of HBV and its complications in the future, in which new infection control is more effective than increasing diagnosis, treatment rate and treatment eligibility. However, considering the large existing chronic HBV infected population and the low HBsAg loss rate of NA therapy, it is still difficult to avert the increasing trend of cumulative cirrhosis, DC, HCC, LT, and HBV-related death in all scenarios. If new high-potency drugs are not developed, the disease burden of chronic HBV will remain high in the future.

作者: StephenW 时间: 2020-8-30 12:50

基於個人的模型研究2006至2050年中國慢性乙型肝炎的疾病負擔和並發症

楊政，吳杰，丁成，徐開進，楊世貴和李蘭娟

Virology Journal卷17，文章編號：132（2020）引用本文

1高度

指標詳細信息

抽象
背景

慢性乙型肝炎已成為中國的主要公共衛生問題。尚未完全進行疾病負擔的準確描述。我們旨在通過對各種情況進行建模來預測慢性乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）感染的疾病負擔和相關並發症。
方法

基於個體的馬爾可夫模型用於預測2006年至2050年的疾病負擔。我們模擬了5種情況，這些情況具有不同的年發病率，診斷和核苷酸類似物（NA）治療率以及治療資格，其中包括無診斷或無NA的自然病史治療，一個基本案例，世界衛生組織（WHO）提出的目標案例和兩個理想案例。
結果

預計自然史情況下，HBsAg損失最少（2759萬例），與HBV相關的死亡人數最多（2719萬例）。隨著NA療法的診斷和治療率的提高，理想病例的HBV相關死亡人數（14.46-1477萬）比WHO建議的病例（1513萬）和基礎病例（1689萬）要少，但是HBsAg損失的比例相似其中。隨著新感染病例的減少，在世衛組織和理想病例中，預計2050年慢性HBV的患病率至少為27.03–2749萬。
結論

理想情況1和2將使HBV及其未來並發症的疾病負擔降到最低，在這種情況下，新的感染控制比提高診斷，治療率和治療資格更為有效。然而，考慮到現有的慢性HBV感染人群眾多且NA治療的HBsAg丟失率低，在所有情況下仍難以避免累積性肝硬化，DC，HCC，LT和HBV相關死亡的增加趨勢。如果不開發新的高效藥，那麼將來慢性乙肝病毒的疾病負擔將仍然很高。

作者: StephenW 时间: 2020-8-30 12:50

https://virologyj.biomedcentral. ... /s12985-020-01393-z

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