Biomed Res Int. 2019 Feb 27;2019:1621627. doi: 10.1155/2019/1621627. eCollection 2019.
Development and Validation of a Novel Model to Predict Liver Histopathology in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.
Guo H1,2, Zhu B1, Li S3, Li J1, Shen Z4, Zheng Y4, Zhao W5, Tan D2, Wu J1, Zhang X1, Jiang Q1, Qi X1,2, Mao R1, Yu X1,4, Su Z4, Zhang J1.
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Abstract
It is still vague for chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with normal or mildly increasing alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level to undergo antiviral treatment or not. The purpose of our study was to establish a noninvasive model based on routine blood test to predict liver histopathology for antiviral therapy. This retrospective study enrolled 258 CHB patients with liver biopsy from the First Hospital of Quanzhou (training cohort, n=126) and Huashan Hospital (validation cohort, n=132). Histologic grading of necroinflammation (G) and liver fibrosis (S) was performed according to the Scheuer scoring system. A novel model, ATPI, including aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (TBil), and platelets (PLT), was developed in training cohort. The area under ROC curves (AUC) of ATPI for predicting antiviral therapy indication was 0.83 in training cohort and was 0.88 in the validation cohort, respectively. Similarly, ATPI also displayed the highest AUC in predicting antiviral therapy indication in CHB patients with normal or mildly increasing ALT level. In conclusion, ATPI is a novel independent model to predict liver histopathology for antiviral therapy in CHB patients with normal and mildly increased ALT levels.