Feasibility of dynamic risk prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis B
Mi Young Jeon
Hye Won Lee
Seung Up Kim
Beom Kyung Kim
Jun Yong Park
Do Young Kim
Kwang‐Hyub Han
Sang Hoon Ahn
First published: 2 September 2017
https://doi.org/10.1111/liv.13583
Funding informationThis study was supported by the Basic Science Research Program throug ... More
Handling Editor: Chun‐Jen Liu
Mi Young Jeon and Hye Won Lee contributed equally to this work as joint first authors. Seung U ... More
Abstract
Background & Aims
Several risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development are available. We explored whether the use of risk prediction models can dynamically predict HCC development at different time points in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients.
Methods
Between 2006 and 2014, 1397 CHB patients were recruited. All patients underwent serial transient elastography at intervals of >6 months.
Results
The median age of this study population (931 males and 466 females) was 49.0 years. The median CU‐HCC, REACH‐B, LSM‐HCC and mREACH‐B score at enrolment were 4.0, 9.0, 10.0 and 8.0 respectively. During the follow‐up period (median, 68.0 months), 87 (6.2%) patients developed HCC. All risk prediction models were successful in predicting HCC development at both the first liver stiffness (LS) measurement (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.067‐1.467 in the subgroup without antiviral therapy [AVT] and 1.096‐1.458 in the subgroup with AVT) and second LS measurement (HR = 1.125‐1.448 in the subgroup without AVT and 1.087‐1.249 in the subgroup with AVT). In contrast, neither the absolute nor percentage change in the scores from the risk prediction models predicted HCC development (all P > .05). The mREACH‐B score performed similarly or significantly better than did the other scores (AUROCs at 5 years, 0.694‐0.862 vs 0.537‐0.875).
Conclusions
Dynamic prediction of HCC development at different time points was achieved using four risk prediction models, but not using the changes in the absolute and percentage values between two time points. The mREACH‐B score was the most appropriate prediction model of HCC development among four prediction models.
作者: StephenW 时间: 2018-3-26 20:01
慢性乙型肝炎患者肝细胞癌发生动态风险预测的可行性
米Je全
惠元李
Seung Up Kim
Beom Kyung Kim
君勇公园
做年轻的金
Kwang-Hyub Han
桑勋安
首次发布：2017年9月2日 https://doi.org/10.1111/liv.13583
资金信息本研究得到了基础科学研究计划的支持...更多
处理编辑：刘春仁
Mi Young Jeon和Hye Won Lee作为第一作者共同为这项工作做出了贡献。 Seung U ...更多