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标题: 强生公司最近收购了Novira是一出戏的一个小市场 [打印本页]

作者: StephenW    时间: 2015-11-10 13:33     标题: 强生公司最近收购了Novira是一出戏的一个小市场

Johnson & Johnson’s Recent Acquisition Of Novira Is A Play In A Small Market

Johnson & Johnson’s recently agreed to acquire Novira Therapeutics, which develops therapies to treat chronic Hepatitis B viral infections. [1] The company doesn’t have a marketable drug yet, which suggests that J&J has strong confidence in the clinical data for Novira’s developmental stage drugs. So, the obvious question is, how significant is this move? We believe while it may be worthwhile investing in novel therapies, the overall market opportunity for Hepaitis B treatment is quite limited. This appears to be, at best, a small incremental move.

Novira Acquisition Appears To Be A Relatively Minor Play

J&J is interested in Novira’s antiviral compounds which are currently under development. One such candidate is NVR 3-778, which is a small molecule drug intended to treat patients with Hepatitis B virus through oral administration. The drug works by inhibiting HBV core (or capsid protein) which is an important drug target, as well as a novel technique. Nevertheless, the global Hepatitis B market is expected to reach just around $3.5 billion by 2021, according to some estimates. [2] This means that the incremental value addition from a successful drug is likely to be limited. So, why is the market opportunity smaller than some of the other strains of Hepatitis virus such as Hepatitis C? The diagnosis and treatment rates remain low as the condition is generally asymptomatic. The current drugs are serving the market reasonably well, and there is threat from generic competition too.

However, J&J Needs New Drugs To Replace Some That Will Go Off Patent Soon

Having established that the market opportunity is limited, the move is still incrementally beneficial as J&J gradually needs to strengthen its pipeline to increase the likelihood of successful drug launches. Some of its key drugs are likely to go off patent in the next couple of years.

We expect J&J’s oncology division to face increased competitive pressures, and believe that sales of  its key cancer drugs Zytiga and Velcade may decline in the coming years. Cancer drugs constituted nearly 15% of J&J’s pharma business last year, which is not a small figure by any means. Zytiga has more than 30% share of the metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer market in the U.S. Last year, this figure showed meaningful quarterly sequential growth, but this year’s quarters have been different. The impact of growing competition from other branded drugs is visible and Zytiga’s market share has declined slightly from its peak value. The drug’s composition of matter patent expires at the end of 2016 and, by 2017, we expect a meaningful impact of Zytiga’s sales from competition from generics. Velcade is already under strong competitive pressure. The drug’s sales declined slightly in 2014 and a court ruling has overturned Velcade’s patent which means generic versions can enter the market in 2017. Together, these drugs brought nearly $3.85 billion in revenues in 2014.

作者: StephenW    时间: 2015-11-10 13:33

强生公司最近收购了Novira是一出戏的一个小市场

强生公司最近同意收购Novira治疗,其开发的疗法治疗慢性乙型肝炎病毒感染。 [1]本公司没有出适销对路的药呢,这表明强生公司具有很强的信心,为Novira的发展阶段药物的临床资料。因此,一个显而易见的问题是,如何显著的这一举动?我们相信,虽然它可能是值得投资的新疗法,为Hepaitis B处理的整体市场机会是相当有限的。这似乎是,在最好的,一个小的增​​量移动。

Novira收购似乎是一个相对较小的游戏

J&J是兴趣Novira的抗病毒化合物,它们是目前正在开发中。其中一个候选人是NVR 3-778,这是一种小分子药物意在通过口服治疗患者的乙肝病毒。该药物通过抑制HBV核心(或衣壳蛋白),是一种重要的药物靶标,以及一种新技术。尽管如此,全球乙肝市场预计到2021年将达到就在$ 3.5十亿,根据一些估计。 [2]这意味着该增量值加法从一个成功的药物是可能是有限的。那么,为什么市场的机会比一些肝炎病毒的其他菌株,如丙型肝炎的小?诊断率和治疗率仍然很低的条件是一般无症状。目前的药物所服务的市场相当好,而且有来自仿制药的竞争威胁了。

不过,强生需要新的药物来取代一些熄灭专利很快

在确定了市场的机会是有限的,此举是增量还是有益的强生公司逐渐需要加强管道,以增加成功的药物推出的可能性。它的一些主要的药物都可能熄灭的专利,在未来几年。

我们预计,强生的肿瘤学师面临更大的竞争压力,并相信其销售重点抗癌药物Zytiga和万珂可能在未来几年下降。癌症药物占近15%的强生公司的制药业务,去年,这是一个不小的数字以任何方式。 Zytiga有超过30%的份额转移阉割性前列腺癌在美国市场去年年底,这一数字显示出有意义的季度环比增长,但今年的季度有所不同。日益激烈的竞争从其他品牌药的影响是可见的,Zytiga的市场份额已经从高峰值略有下降。的物质专利药物的成分到期2016年底,到2017年,我们预计Zytiga的销售额从竞争从仿制药产生有意义的影响。万珂已经在强大的竞争压力。该药物的销售额在2014年略有下降和法院的裁决推翻万珂的专利,这意味着仿制药可以在2017年一同进入市场,这些药物带来了近$ 3.85十亿的收入在2014年。
作者: newchinabok    时间: 2015-11-10 13:43

回复 StephenW 的帖子

没看懂,有没人解读一下
作者: zgct    时间: 2015-11-11 13:25

就是说强生露出小动作小手段,还有特大动作在后面?
作者: newchinabok    时间: 2015-11-11 13:39

美国人口3.2亿,百分之二,三乙肝,美国市场不大,药给杨森可能看好中国市场
作者: ivanich    时间: 2015-11-11 15:05

美国有2-3%hbver?有辣么多么
作者: ivanich    时间: 2015-11-11 15:05

美国有2-3%hbver?有辣么多么




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